Who Wins It?: Detailed Projections for Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election

LAWTERACT

NIGERIA 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROJECTIONS

The Nigerian Presidential Elections for 2023 are to hold on the 25th of February, 2023 and below are the projected scores (%) for the leading candidates.

The leading candidates and their political parties are:

  1. All Progressive Congress (APC): Bola Ahmed Tinubu
  2. Labour Party (LP): Peter Obi
  3. People’s Democratic Party (PDP): Atiku Abubakar
  4. NNPP: Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso

The projections were aggregated with due consideration to historical analysis, state voting pattern, tribal sentiments, religious sentiments and power of incumbency amongst others.

STATESAPCLPPDPNNPPMOEWINNER
Abuja30%37%29.53%0.5LP
Abia5%65%25%0%5%LP
Adamawa41.2%5%45.8%7%0%PDP
Akwa Ibom12%35%50%0.82.2%PDP
Anambra3%70%26%0%1%LP
Bauchi65%2%27%5%1%APC
Bayelsa20%46%33%0%1%LP
Benue40%22%37%1%0%APC
Borno80%1%11%7%1%APC
Cross River25%40%33%0%2%LP
Delta16%34.2%49%0%0.8%PDP
Ebonyi25%65%10%0%0%LP
Edo29%40%30%0%0%LP
Ekiti78.7%5.2%14.1%0%1%APC
Enugu5.7%77%17%0%0.3%LP
Gombe62%2%16%19%1%APC
Imo26%56%17%0%1%LP
Jigawa63%1%16%20%1%APC
Kaduna38%20%15%26%1%APC
Kano40.2%7%11.8%40.3%0.7NNPP
Katsina51%3.2%15.8%39.3%0.7%APC
Kebbi50%4%25%20%1%APC
Kogi42%22%32%3%1%APC
Kwara70%5%13%1%1%APC
Lagos45.441.610%1%2%APC
Nassarawa53%17%26%4%0%APC
Niger65%2%25%8%0%APC
Ogun70%12%17%0%1%APC
Ondo77%5%17%0%1%APC
Osun78%9%12%0%1%APC
Oyo70%20%10%0%0%APC
Plateau25%22%49.5%3%0.5PDP
Rivers25%40%33%0%2%LP
Sokoto45%2%38%10%0%APC
Taraba30%29.5%37%3%0.5PDP
Yobe75%2%15%8%0%APC
Zamfara  70%2%20%8%0%APC

TOTAL STATES WON (PARTY)

  1. ALL PROGRESSIVE CONGRESS: 21
  2. LABOUR PARTY: 8 + FCT
  3. PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 6
  4. NEW NIGERIA PEOPLE’S PARTY: 1
  1.  LABOUR PARTY BREAKDOWN

States to be won: Abuja, Abia, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo,

Total Number of States to be won: 9

No of states with 25%: 13

2. ALL PROGRESSIVE CONGRESS BREAKDOWN

States to be won: Bauchi, Benue, Ekiti, Gombe, Borno, Jigawa. Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara

Total Number of States to be won: 21

No of states with 25%: 31

3. PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC PARTY BREAKDOWN

States to be won: Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Plateau, Taraba, Rivers

Total Number of States to be won: 6

No of states with 25%: 18

4. NEW NIGERIA PEOPLE’S PARTY BREAKDOWN

States to be won: Kano

Total Number of States to be won: 1

No of states with 25%: 2

STATE BY STATE EXPLANATION VALIDATING PROJECTIONS

Abuja

The message of Peter Obi, the Presidential Candidate for the Labour Party (LP) seems to resonate more with metropolitan Nigeria, a sizable number of the ‘woke’ elites and of course a sizable number of the youthful voting population. The FCT embodies this. So, Obi is likely to poll the highest in Abuja

Abia

The South-east has never wanted the presidency badly as it does now couple with the fact that Peter Obi is South-easterner who was a one-time governor of a south eastern State Nigerians also vote along tribal lines. Hence, So, Obi is likely to poll the highest in Abia.

Adamawa

Adamawa state is the home state of the Presidential Candidate of the People’s Democratic Party and this will greatly influence the number of votes to him. On the flip side, prominent indigenes like Murtala Nyako who is a former governor of the state and still very much influential in the State is a member of the APC and so will give a bit of advantage to the APC. However, Atiku is likely to poll the highest in Adamawa.

Akwa Ibom

Akwa-Ibom has historically been a PDP state coupled with the fact that the current governor of the State, Emmanuel Udom who is adjudged to have performed well as governor is also the Chief Campaigner of the PDP Presidential campaign committee. The state owes loyalty to PDP and it happens that Nigerians also vote along party lines. Hence, Atiku is likely to poll the highest in Akwa-Ibom.

Anambra

The South-east has never wanted the presidency badly as it does now coupled with the fact that Peter Obi is South-easterner who was a one-time governor of a Anambra State. Nigerians also vote along tribal lines coupled with the home boy advantage. Despite the fact that the current governor of the state belongs to APGA, Obi is most likely to poll the highest in Anambra.

Bauchi

In the 2019 elections, the APC polled a whopping 77.95% in Bauchi State, although the current governor of the state is a PDP member, he is however a sympathizer to the G-5 governors and has been inactive in the Atiku campaign. While we believe that it may be impossible to replicate the 77.95%, APC will definitely poll the highest.

Bayelsa

Bayelsa state is a historic PDP state and will poll an impressive number. However, there is no denying the fact that the Atiku presidency is almost viewed as an aberration in the South while an Obi Presidency has great populistic and sentimental traction in the South east and South south. So, while PDP will be impressive, Labour Party will win Bayelsa.

Benue

The current governor of Benue state is an active member of the G-5 but has been a PDP state. The candidate of the PDP who polled a whopping 61.51% in the 2019 election, however, the machinery of the State seems to be in support of the LP as the governor himself had stated so. However, the APC has the trump card of the Reverend Father who seems to be greatly loved but the love may not sufficiently transpose to the APC candidate. Hence, the LP candidate is likely to poll the highest.

Borno

The vice-presidential candidate of the APC is a former governor of Borno State and a sitting Senator of the State. Also, the current governor, Zulum, who is arguably one of the best governors in Nigeria is a member of the APC. In 2019, the APC polled a whopping 90% in the State and that number is unlikely to drop. So, APC is likely to poll the highest in Borno State.

Cross River

The current sitting governor of the state is an APC member and so this will be of help to the candidate of the APC to poll at least the statutory 25%. Cross river too is a staunch PDP state and will poll about 33% from historical votes. However, the message of Peter Obi, the Presidential Candidate for the Labour Party (LP) seems to resonate more with metropolitan Nigeria, a sizable number of the ‘woke’ elites and of course a sizable number of the youthful voting population. Cross river embodies this coupled with the fact that it is also a south southern state where he holds rising influence. So, Obi is likely to poll the highest in Cross river.

Delta

The vice-presidential candidate of the PDP is the current governor of Delta state. Historically, Delta is a PDP state as the PDP polled about 71.59% in the 2019 elections. However, the candidature of Peter Obi will water down this number for the sole purpose of it being a south southern state where Obi is perceived as strong. Nevertheless, PDP is likely to poll the highest in this State.

Ebonyi

The current sitting governor of the state is an APC member and so this will be of help to the candidate of the APC to poll at least the statutory 25%. Ebonyi too is historically a staunch PDP state and in fact the current governor is defector from PDP. However, the dream of  the south eastern presidency will tilt the scales in favour of Peter Obi. So, it is a no brainer that and Obi likely to poll the highest in Ebonyi.

Edo

The Edo no be Lagos mantra has ended in an abysmal failure. Obaseki has performed below expectations and persons who seemed to be his backers to clinch the PDP gubernatorial ticket are now in support of the opposition. Edo State has Oshiomhole who is a senatorial candidate of the APC, a former Chairman of the ruling party, a former governor of the State and a strong ally of the APC presidential candidate.  The factors may however not lead to a convincing victory for the APC. Edo youths and aged queue behind the sentiments of the Obi message and thus, though with a little margin from that of the PDP, the LP is likely to poll the highest in the State.

Ekiti

The governorship election was recently conducted in the State and was won by the APC candidate. The PDP has foothold in this state, however, the most influential PDP politician from the state abhors the North-to-North ticket and has huge regards for the APC presidential candidate. The PDP case is worsened by its recent suspension of all the party executives and candidates for anti-party activities. The Yoruba’s respect Tinubu as their son, a philanthropist, builder of men and coupled with the ethnic sentiments of the APC candidate being a Yoruba man. The APC is likely to poll the highest in Ekiti State.

Enugu

Enugu is historically a staunch PDP state and in fact its current governor is from the PDP. However, the dream of the south eastern presidency will tilt the scales largely in favour of Peter Obi. So, it is a no brainer that Obi is likely to poll the highest in Enugu.

Gombe

The Emir of Gombe speaks highly of the APC candidate and this will no doubt positively affect the vote for Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The APC polled 72.71% in 2019 elections but we recognize the fact that Buhari will no longer be on the ballot. Hence, there is an inevitable dilution of the APC votes to accrue coupled with the fact that the incumbent governor of the state is a PDP member. PDP will dilute the APC’s traditional presidential votes but the APC is likely to poll the highest.

Imo

The current sitting governor of the state is an APC member and leads the South eastern bloc of the BAT campaign, therefore, this will be of help to the candidate of the APC to poll at least the statutory 25%. Imo used to be a staunch PDP state and in fact the current governor from APC only became one because the court made it so. However, the dream of the south eastern presidency will also tilt the scales in favour of Peter Obi. So, it is a no brainer that Obi is likely to poll the highest in Imo.

Jigawa

The APC polled a 71.84% in the 2019 elections in Jigawa. We, however, are not unmindful of the fact that Buhari will no longer be on the ballot. Hence, there is an inevitable dilution of the APC votes to accrue coupled with the fact that the incumbent governor of the state is a PDP member. PDP and the ace of the NNPP, Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso will dilute the APC’s traditional presidential votes that a Buhari had consistently attracted but the APC is likely to poll the highest since Buhari still campaigns for the APC and raises the hands of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Kaduna

Kaduna is a battle ground state as it is one of the elite states of the North that has huge Christian population in Southern Kaduna who seem to want to tilt towards Peter Obi whose Vice-presidential candidate also hails from the state. The state also shares proximity with Kano State where Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso is strongest. However, the current governor of the state is an influential member of the APC. These three forces will combine to battle for the votes but I believe the power of incumbency and the goodwill with which indigenes of the North views the APC presidential candidate will poll the highest, although with a small margin.

Kano

Kano is a battle ground state as it is perhaps the most elite state of the North. The current governor of the State is a member of the APC and has been dubbed the most dependable friend of the APC presidential candidate. He commands the cult following named ‘Gandujiyya’. On the other hand, there is the candidate of the NNPP, a former governor of the State, a former Senator, a former Minister of Defence and the leader of the cult movement ‘Kwankwassiya’. The battle ends with Kwankwaso, the candidate of the NNPP polling highest with a paltry 0.1% over the APC.

Katsina

Home to the incumbent President of the country who polled 79.21% in the 2019 elections. Without a doubt, the President’s popularity has waned over the years especially on the back of incessant and pervasive security issues. Also, the candidate of the NNPP, a former governor of a neighboring State, a former Senator, a former Minister of Defense and the leader of the cult movement ‘Kwankwassiya’ commands good following in Katsina too. However, the President must deliver his state so we believe that the APC will poll the highest in Katsina.

Kebbi

The APC polled 76% in the 2019 election. We, however, are not unmindful of the fact that Buhari will no longer be on the ballot. Hence, there is an inevitable dilution of the APC votes to accrue coupled with the ace of the NNPP, Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso who will dilute the APC’s traditional presidential votes that a Buhari had consistently attracted but the APC is likely to poll the highest since Buhari still campaigns for the APC and the current Governor who is a Senatorial candidate is a member of the APC.

Kogi

Kogi is an in-between state between the PDP and the APC. While the current governor is a member of the APC and prides himself as a great youth mobilizer. We think that his credentials are overstated and being a north central state, the PDP has a major inroad into the state. However, the LP will dilute the traditional Christian and neutral votes of the PDP and thus APC is likely to poll the highest in the state.

Kwara

The Otoge movement put an end to the PDP and Saraki hegemony in Kwara State. The APC is highly likely to poll the highest in Kwara State,

Lagos

Lagos is a battle ground state. It is the commercial hub of the country and so houses many persons from the south east and the south south. The cluster of voters from south east and south south are titled towards an Obi presidency. However, the APC presidential candidate is perceived as the most influential politician in Lagos being a former governor of the state himself and credited as the creator of modern Lagos. Hence, unless there is voter apathy of the traditional Lagos indigenes, it is likely that the fierce battle will tilt in the favour of the APC presidential candidate howbeit very small.

Nasarawa

The sitting governor of the state is a member of the APC and a performing governor. Because of its proximity to the FCT, some of the ‘woke’ votes will go to LP while a chunk of the others will be wrestled between the APC and the PDP. We predict based on a performing incumbent index, the principle of equity and goodwill towards BAT that the APC will likely poll the highest in the state.

Niger

The APC polled a 71.88% in the 2019 elections in Niger. We, however, are not unmindful of the fact that Buhari will no longer be on the ballot. Hence, there is an inevitable dilution of the APC votes to accrue coupled with the fact that the incumbent governor of the state is a PDP member. However, sentiments do not change drastically on this one despite the insecurity issues, it is likely that Bola Ahmed Tinubu polls the highest in the state.

Ogun

The governor of the state is an APC member. The Yoruba’s respect Tinubu as their son, a philanthropist, builder of men and coupled with the ethnic sentiments of the APC candidate being a Yoruba man. The APC is likely to poll the highest in Ogun State.

Ondo

The governor of the state is an APC member. The Yoruba’s respect Tinubu as their son, a philanthropist, builder of men and coupled with the ethnic sentiments of the APC candidate being a Yoruba man. There is hardly any opposition party in Ondo State. Therefore, yhe APC is likely to poll the highest in Ondo State.

Osun

Although, the recently elected governor of the state is a PDP member, as it stands, the election tribunal has just sacked him and directed the return of the APC candidate as governor. The Yoruba’s respect Tinubu as their son, a philanthropist, builder of men and coupled with the ethnic sentiments of the APC candidate being a Yoruba man. The APC is likely to poll the highest in Osun State.

Oyo

The current governor of the state is a PDP member but a member of the G-5 who are against the northern succession of Buhari. Seyi Makinde (the governor) has directed that the apparatus of state work for the election of the APC candidate, this is in addition to the support of the APC gubernatorial candidate, Teslim Folarin and the support of the Accord Party gubernatorial candidate, Adelabu Bayo. There is therefore no doubt that the APC will poll the highest in Oyo state.

Plateau

The chairman of the APC campaign council is the sitting governor of the state. The northern state is predominantly Christian and panders to an Obi presidency. However, history and tribe are determinants of election voting patten in Nigeria. This is to say that plateau state is historically a PDP State and therefore chances are that the PDP will poll the highest in the state.

Rivers

The current governor of the state is a PDP member but doubles as the leader/front man of the G-5 who are against the northern succession of Buhari. It is rumored that Nyesom Wike (the governor) has directed that the apparatus of state to work for the election of the APC candidate. This is also coupled with the fact that he has sought a court order restraining the PDP from suspending him in preparation of his public support for a Presidential candidate other than that of his party; Atiku. However, Rivers State is too much of a PDP state historically for the voting pattern to change overnight. Even with the noticeable absence of gov. Wike, PDP will take Rivers State.

Sokoto

Tambuwal who is the sitting governor of the northern state is high ranking member of the PDP PCC. However, even as governor, all of his allies within the state seems to crossed to the APC facilitated by Senator Wamakko who are now working assiduously for a Tinubu presidency. Although, the incumbency and tribal factor would pull votes for PDP, the APC would win howbeit with a small margin.

Taraba

The ruling party has never fared well in the state as the state has been a predominantly PDP state. There is unlikely to be any major swing to the opposite direction, hence, the PDP is likely to win the state.

Yobe

The APC polled a whopping 89.01% in the 2019 elections.We, however, are not unmindful of the fact that Buhari will no longer be on the ballot. Hence, there is an inevitable dilution of the APC votes to accrue. However, since Buhari still campaigns for the APC and the current Governor is a member of the APC and a former acting APC Chairman, the APC is highly likely to win the state.

Zamfara

The APC polled a 75.84% in the 2019 elections.We, however, are not unmindful of the fact that Buhari will no longer be on the ballot. Hence, there is an inevitable dilution of the APC votes to accrue. However, since Buhari still campaigns for the APC and the current Governor is a member of the APC, the APC is highly likely to win the state.

Signed:

TAIWO ABIODUN-ONI

LL.B (HONS), B.L, LL.M, Ph.D (in-view), ACiarb

Download Lawteract’s 2023 Presidential Election Projections

Disclaimer: The scores outlined above are mere projections and are not sanctioned by any of the political parties or third parties, neither are they made to cause misinformation or distort public opinion.

2 thoughts on “Who Wins It?: Detailed Projections for Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election”

  1. Babagee (Gbaleh)

    Fair analysis but I don’t think it is robust enough. I would have loved to see a good analysis or prediction of the likely behaviour of the Buhari numbers that are now up for grabs. Especially as their principal wouldn’t be on the ballot.

    Good Job.

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